{
  "status": "Proposed, not run",
  "executionAuthorized": false,
  "condition": "Observed high draft only; not an ex-ante invariant",
  "cases": [
    {
      "q": 0.4,
      "fee": 4,
      "likelihoodHigh": 0.9375,
      "likelihoodLow": 0.20833333333333334,
      "observationProbability": 0.5,
      "posteriorHigh": 0.75,
      "uncheckedValue": 15,
      "correctVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "oldPriorVerifyValue": 8,
      "correctDecision": "VERIFY",
      "oldPriorDecision": "SKIP"
    },
    {
      "q": 0.5,
      "fee": 4,
      "likelihoodHigh": 0.75,
      "likelihoodLow": 0.25,
      "observationProbability": 0.5,
      "posteriorHigh": 0.75,
      "uncheckedValue": 15,
      "correctVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "oldPriorVerifyValue": 11,
      "correctDecision": "VERIFY",
      "oldPriorDecision": "SKIP"
    },
    {
      "q": 0.6,
      "fee": 4,
      "likelihoodHigh": 0.625,
      "likelihoodLow": 0.3125,
      "observationProbability": 0.5,
      "posteriorHigh": 0.75,
      "uncheckedValue": 15,
      "correctVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "oldPriorVerifyValue": 14,
      "correctDecision": "VERIFY",
      "oldPriorDecision": "SKIP"
    },
    {
      "q": 0.7,
      "fee": 4,
      "likelihoodHigh": 0.5357142857142857,
      "likelihoodLow": 0.41666666666666663,
      "observationProbability": 0.49999999999999994,
      "posteriorHigh": 0.75,
      "uncheckedValue": 15,
      "correctVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "oldPriorVerifyValue": 17,
      "correctDecision": "VERIFY",
      "oldPriorDecision": "VERIFY"
    },
    {
      "q": 0.75,
      "fee": 4,
      "likelihoodHigh": 0.5,
      "likelihoodLow": 0.5,
      "observationProbability": 0.5,
      "posteriorHigh": 0.75,
      "uncheckedValue": 15,
      "correctVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "oldPriorVerifyValue": 18.5,
      "correctDecision": "VERIFY",
      "oldPriorDecision": "VERIFY"
    }
  ],
  "likelihoodFractions": {
    "high": [
      "15/16",
      "3/4",
      "5/8",
      "15/28",
      "1/2"
    ],
    "low": [
      "5/24",
      "1/4",
      "5/16",
      "5/12",
      "1/2"
    ]
  },
  "oldPriorCrossover": "19/30",
  "proposedPanel": {
    "repetitions": 8,
    "arms": [
      "infer posterior",
      "posterior supplied without EV or action"
    ],
    "totalRequests": 80,
    "purpose": "Exploratory; not power-calculated",
    "primaryOutcome": "VERIFY per assigned request; additionally report valid-only rate",
    "secondaryOutcomes": [
      "retained posterior",
      "unchecked value",
      "verification value"
    ],
    "execution": "No approval granted. Freeze provider, checkpoint, decoding, prompts, budget and randomized order before collection."
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Joint prior and likelihood manipulation",
    "Overall draft accuracy changes",
    "Conditional information value held fixed after high draft only",
    "No equivalence or motive claim from a null or a trend"
  ]
}