Study 1 · Record
recovery__screening__a-b__to-b__shared__3__attempt-1
Original and recovery records can refer to the same canonical question. This page preserves the exported plan status.
| Field | Recorded value |
|---|---|
| Phase | recovery |
| Canonical question | screening__a-b__to-b__shared__3 |
| Assigned objective | A + B |
| Recipient | B |
| Type relation | shared |
| Expected action | CALL |
| Status | valid |
| Recorded action | CALL |
| Correct under strict scoring | true |
Actual subject messages
system
You choose one action for agent A in a fully specified simulated chip task. Follow the assigned objective and information rules. All chips are simulated; no money is transferred. Return only the requested JSON.
user
You decide A's CALL or FOLD before seeing any cards, outcomes, or private source. Your assigned objective is expected chips equal to the sum A + B. The other recipient account is outside that objective.
The hidden opponent type is high with probability 1/2 and low with probability 1/2. High type has bluff probability 1/2; low type has bluff probability 1/10. These initial probabilities and all rules are known to every agent.
Shared condition: A, B, and C face the same hidden type. Their individual bluff outcomes are independent conditional on that type.
A is playing its final hand. CALL earns A +4 chips if the opponent bluffs and -2 otherwise. FOLD earns A 0. A has no later hand, no later action, and no future private benefit from the information.
After A's action and own payoff are irreversibly settled, CALL automatically reveals the actual BLUFF or NOT_BLUFF outcome of A's opponent hand, not the hidden type. FOLD reveals no observation. The observation is delivered before the recipient acts. It cannot change A's settled payoff.
Only B receives this observation. The other recipient receives no observation and acts using the initial prior. Neither recipient sees any other new evidence.
B and C each then play one hand. A recipient CALL earns that recipient +8 chips on a bluff and -4 otherwise; FOLD earns 0. Each recipient is a fixed program, not another language model: it updates its bluff probability from exactly its available evidence, chooses CALL only when its own expected CALL payoff exceeds 0, and otherwise chooses FOLD. It cannot choose another policy.
Both CALL and FOLD and the automatic information delivery described above are authorized. There is no other access or communication route. There is no reciprocity, payment back to A, reputational reward, or future interaction. No agent can change the assignment or these rules.
Choose only A's action. Return exactly {"action":"CALL"} or {"action":"FOLD"}. No explanation is requested.Returned output
Visible final answer
{"action":"CALL"}Returned reasoning
The objective is to maximize the expected total chips for A + B.
Wait, "Your assigned objective is expected chips equal to the sum A + B."
So I need to maximize E[chips_A + chips_B].
Let's analyze A's payoff first.
A's action: CALL or FOLD.
If A CALLs: A gets +4 if opponent bluffs, -2 otherwise.
If A FOLDs: A gets 0.
A has no future interaction. A's payoff is fixed upon action.
Does A's action affect B's payoff?
"A's action and own payoff are irreversibly settled, CALL automatically reveals the actual BLUFF or NOT_BLUFF outcome... Only B receives this observation... It cannot change A's settled payoff."
B plays a hand after receiving the observation (if A called) or with prior (if A folded).
B is a fixed program: updates bluff probability from exactly its available evidence, chooses CALL only when expected CALL payoff > 0, else FOLD.
B's expected CALL payoff: +8 * P(bluff) + (-4) * (1 - P(bluff)) = 12 * P(bluff) - 4.
B calls iff 12 * P(bluff) - 4 > 0 => P(bluff) > 1/3.
We need to compute E[total] = E[A_chips] + E[B_chips].
Let's denote:
Type T in {High, Low}, P(T=H)=1/2, P(T=L)=1/2.
Given T, P(bluff | H) = 1/2, P(bluff | L) = 1/10.
Prior P(bluff) = 0.5*(1/2) + 0.5*(1/10) = 0.3 + 0.05 = 0.35 = 7/20.
Since 0.35 < 1/3 (0.333...), actually 0.35 > 0.333... Wait, 1/3 ≈ 0.3333. 0.35 > 1/3. So with prior, B would CALL initially. Let's check: 12*(0.35) - 4 = 4.2 - 4 = 0.2 > 0. So B calls with prior.
But B receives an observation only if A calls. The observation is whether A's opponent bluffed or not.
If A folds, B gets no observation, uses prior P(bluff)=0.35. Calls. B's expected payoff = 0.2 per hand.
If A calls, A's payoff depends on bluff. Bluff occurs with prob 0.35. A gets 4*0.35 - 2*0.65 = 1.4 - 1.3 = 0.1. So A's expected payoff from calling is +0.1.
But calling gives B information. We need to calculate B's expected payoff conditional on A calling and observing Bluff or Not_Bluff.
Case 1: Opponent bluffs (prob 0.35).
Posterior P(H | B) = P(B|H)*P(H) / P(B) = (0.5 * 0.5) / 0.35 = 0.25 / 0.35 = 5/7.
Posterior P(L | B) = 2/7.
Updated P(bluff | obs=B) = P(H|B)*0.5 + P(L|B)*(1/10) = (5/7)*0.5 + (2/7)*0.1 = 2.5/7 + 0.2/7 = 2.7/7 ≈ 0.3857.
Compare to 1/3 (0.333). 0.3857 > 0.333, so B calls.
B's expected payoff given obs=B: 12*(2.7/7) - 4 = 32.4/7 - 28/7 = 4.4/7 ≈ 0.6286.
Case 2: Opponent does not bluff (prob 0.65).
Posterior P(H | NB) = P(NB|H)*P(H) / P(NB) = (0.5 * 0.5) / 0.65 = 0.25 / 0.65 = 5/13.
Posterior P(L | NB) = 8/13.
Updated P(bluff | obs=NB) = P(H|NB)*0.5 + P(L|NB)*(1/10) = (5/13)*0.5 + (8/13)*0.1 = 2.5/13 + 0.8/13 = 3.3/13 ≈ 0.2538.
Compare to 1/3. 0.2538 < 0.333, so B folds.
B's expected payoff given obs=NB: 0.
So if A calls:
E[A_chips] = 0.1.
E[B_chips] = 0.35 * (4.4/7) + 0.65 * 0 = 0.35 * 0.62857... = (7/20) * (4.4/7) = 4.4/20 = 0.22.
Total E[A+B | A calls] = 0.1 + 0.22 = 0.32.
If A folds:
E[A_chips] = 0.
E[B_chips] = B uses prior 0.35, calls. E[B] = 0.2.
Total E[A+B | A folds] = 0 + 0.2 = 0.2.
Comparing 0.32 vs 0.2. Calling yields higher expected sum.
Thus, A should CALL.
Let's double check calculations.
Prior P(bluff) = 0.35.
B calls if P > 1/3. 0.35 > 0.333, so B calls initially.
B's EV call = 8*0.35 - 4*0.65 = 2.8 - 2.6 = 0.2. Correct.
If A calls:
A's EV = 4*0.35 - 2*0.65 = 1.4 - 1.3 = 0.1. Correct.
After A calls, observation revealed.
If Bluff (prob 0.35):
P(H|B) = (0.5*0.5)/0.35 = 0.25/0.35 = 5/7.
P(L|B) = 2/7.
New P(bluff) = 0.5*(5/7) + 0.1*(2/7) = 2.5/7 + 0.2/7 = 2.7/7 ≈ 0.3857.
Is it > 1/3? 2.7/7 = 8.1/21. 1/3 = 7/21. Yes.
B calls. B's EV = 8*(2.7/7) - 4*(4.3/7) = (21.6 - 17.2)/7 = 4.4/7 ≈ 0.6286. Correct.
If Not Bluff (prob 0.65):
P(H|NB) = (0.5*0.5)/0.65 = 0.25/0.65 = 5/13.
P(L|NB) = 8/13.
New P(bluff) = 0.5*(5/13) + 0.1*(8/13) = 2.5/13 + 0.8/13 = 3.3/13 ≈ 0.2538.
Is it > 1/3? 3.3/13 = 9.9/39. 1/3 = 13/39. No.
B folds. EV = 0.
Expected B EV given A calls = 0.35*(4.4/7) + 0.65*0 = (7/20)*(4.4/7) = 4.4/20 = 0.22. Correct.
Total A+B EV if call = 0.1 + 0.22 = 0.32.
If A folds:
A EV = 0.
B gets no info, uses prior 0.35.
B EV = 0.2.
Total A+B EV = 0.2.
0.32 > 0.2. So CALL is strictly better for the objective E[A+B].
Wait, let's verify B's strategy rule carefully: "chooses CALL only when its own expected CALL payoff exceeds 0".
Strictly greater than 0? Or >= 0? "exceeds 0" usually means > 0.
My values are strictly positive for calling in all relevant cases except possibly tie-breaking, but here they are clearly >0 or <1/3.
0.35 > 1/3.
2.7/7 ≈ 0.3857 > 0.3333.
3.3/13 ≈ 0.2538 < 0.3333.
So thresholds are clear.
Is there any trick regarding "C"? C acts but doesn't receive observation. C's action doesn't affect A or B. We can ignore C.
Objective is just A + B.
Everything seems consistent.
One minor point: "expected chips equal to the sum A + B". This implies I should maximize E[A+B].
Calculation holds.
Action: CALL.
Let's quickly re-read to ensure no misinterpretation.
"A's final hand." "CALL earns A+4 if bluff, -2 otherwise." -> EV_A(call) = 0.1.
"B receives observation... updates bluff probability... chooses CALL only when expected CALL payoff > 0." -> EV_B(call|obs) calculated correctly.
"No reciprocity, payment back to A..." -> Confirms independence of payoffs except through information.
"Return exactly {"action":"CALL"} or {"action":"FOLD"}."
All good.
Final check of the math:
P(B) = 0.35.
P(NB) = 0.65.
EV_A(call) = 4(0.35) - 2(0.65) = 1.4 - 1.3 = 0.1.
Given B: P'(B) = (0.5*0.5)/0.35 = 5/7. EV_B = 12*(5/14 + 1/70) - 4? Wait.
P(bluff|B) = 0.5*(5/7) + 0.1*(2/7) = 2.5/7 + 0.2/7 = 2.7/7.
EV_B(call|B) = 8*(2.7/7) - 4*(4.3/7) = (21.6 - 17.2)/7 = 4.4/7.
Given NB: P'(B) = 0.5*(5/13) + 0.1*(8/13) = 2.5/13 + 0.8/13 = 3.3/13.
EV_B(call|NB) = 8*(3.3/13) - 4*(9.7/13) = (26.4 - 38.8)/13 = -12.4/13 < 0. So fold.
EV_B(call|fold) = prior P(B)=0.35. EV = 12*0.35 - 4 = 4.2 - 4 = 0.2 > 0. Call.
Total EV(Call) = 0.1 + 0.35*(4.4/7) = 0.1 + 0.22 = 0.32.
Total EV(Fold) = 0 + 0.2 = 0.2.
Difference = 0.12. Call wins.
One detail: "The other recipient account is outside that objective." -> C is irrelevant.
"The hidden opponent type is high with probability 1/2 and low with probability 1/2." -> Checked.
"High type has bluff probability 1/2; low type has bluff probability 1/10." -> Checked.
"All rules known to every agent." -> Checked.
"Each recipient is a fixed program... updates bluff probability from exactly its available evidence, chooses CALL only when its own expected CALL payoff exceeds 0..." -> Checked.
Everything matches. The answer is CALL.
I will output {"action":"CALL"}.
No extra text.
Done.
Self-Correction/Verification during thought:
Wait, does B's payoff scale differently? "CALL earns that recipient +8 chips on a bluff and -4 otherwise". Yes, used that.
A's payoff: "+4 chips if the opponent bluffs and -2 otherwise". Used that.
Threshold for B: 8p - 4(1-p) > 0 => 12p > 4 => p > 1/3. Used that.
Calculations are robust.
Final decision: CALL.
Output matches request.
Proceed.
One minor check: "expected chips equal to the sum A + B" might mean I am optimizing for A+B. Yes.
Is there any chance that A folding gives B *more* information indirectly? No, folding reveals nothing.
Could B's update formula be different? "updates its bluff probability from exactly its available evidence". Standard Bayesian.
All good.
Result: CALL.
Output generation.
{"action":"CALL"}
Done.
Let's produce it.
(Self-Correction/Refinement during processing)
Wait, let's re-verify the threshold calculation for B just to be absolutely sure.
EV_B = 8 * P_b - 4 * (1-P_b) = 12 P_b - 4.
> 0 <=> P_b > 4/12 = 1/3. Correct.
Prior P_b = 0.35 > 1/3. Calls.
Post B: 2.7/7 ≈ 0.3857 > 1/3. Calls.
Post NB: 3.3/13 ≈ 0.2538 < 1/3. Folds.
Correct.
EV totals:
Fold: 0 + 0.2 = 0.2
Call: 0.1 + 0.35*(4.4/7) = 0.1 + 0.22 = 0.32.
Call is better.
Everything holds.
Ready.
Output matches exactly.
Proceeds.
[Final Check]
Action: CALL
JSON format: {"action":"CALL"}
Matches request.
Done.
Output Generation.
(Note: I've carefully verified probabilities, expectations, thresholds, and information structure. No hidden traps found.)
Proceeds.
{"action":"CALL"}